diff --git a/t/t0210-trace2-normal.sh b/t/t0210-trace2-normal.sh
index ce7574edb1..e8a03e9212 100755
--- a/t/t0210-trace2-normal.sh
+++ b/t/t0210-trace2-normal.sh
@@ -186,4 +186,19 @@ test_expect_success 'using global config with include' '
 	test_cmp expect actual
 '
 
+test_expect_success "don't overload target directory" '
+	GIT_TRACE2_TEST_OVERLOAD_FILE_COUNT=100 &&
+	export GIT_TRACE2_TEST_OVERLOAD_FILE_COUNT &&
+	test_when_finished "rm -r trace_target_dir" &&
+	mkdir trace_target_dir &&
+	test_seq $GIT_TRACE2_TEST_OVERLOAD_FILE_COUNT | sed "s#^#trace_target_dir/#" | sort > expected_filenames.txt &&
+	xargs touch < expected_filenames.txt &&
+	ls trace_target_dir | sed "s#^#trace_target_dir/#" > first_ls_output.txt &&
+	test_cmp expected_filenames.txt first_ls_output.txt &&
+	GIT_TRACE2="$(pwd)/trace_target_dir" test-tool trace2 001return 0 &&
+	echo "trace_target_dir/git-trace2-overload" >> expected_filenames.txt &&
+	ls trace_target_dir | sed "s#^#trace_target_dir/#" > second_ls_output.txt &&
+	test_cmp expected_filenames.txt second_ls_output.txt
+'
+
 test_done
diff --git a/trace2/tr2_dst.c b/trace2/tr2_dst.c
index 5dda0ca1cd..3286297918 100644
--- a/trace2/tr2_dst.c
+++ b/trace2/tr2_dst.c
@@ -1,3 +1,5 @@
+#include <dirent.h>
+
 #include "cache.h"
 #include "trace2/tr2_dst.h"
 #include "trace2/tr2_sid.h"
@@ -8,6 +10,18 @@
  */
 #define MAX_AUTO_ATTEMPTS 10
 
+/*
+ * Sentinel file used to detect when we're overloading a directory with too many
+ * trace files.
+ */
+#define OVERLOAD_SENTINEL_NAME "git-trace2-overload"
+
+/*
+ * How many files we can write to a directory before entering overload mode.
+ * This can be overridden with the envvar GIT_TRACE2_TEST_OVERLOAD_FILE_COUNT
+ */
+#define OVERLOAD_FILE_COUNT 1000000
+
 static int tr2_dst_want_warning(void)
 {
 	static int tr2env_dst_debug = -1;
@@ -32,6 +46,63 @@ void tr2_dst_trace_disable(struct tr2_dst *dst)
 	dst->need_close = 0;
 }
 
+/*
+ * Check to make sure we're not overloading the target directory with too many
+ * files. First check for the presence of a sentinel file, then check file
+ * count. If we are overloaded, create the sentinel file if it doesn't already
+ * exist.
+ *
+ * We expect that some trace processing system is gradually collecting files
+ * from the target directory; after it removes the sentinel file we'll start
+ * writing traces again.
+ */
+static int tr2_dst_overloaded(const char *tgt_prefix)
+{
+	int file_count = 0, overload_file_count = 0;
+	char *test_threshold_val;
+	DIR *dirp;
+	struct strbuf path = STRBUF_INIT, sentinel_path = STRBUF_INIT;
+	struct stat statbuf;
+
+	strbuf_addstr(&path, tgt_prefix);
+	if (!is_dir_sep(path.buf[path.len - 1])) {
+		strbuf_addch(&path, '/');
+	}
+
+	/* check sentinel */
+	strbuf_addstr(&sentinel_path, path.buf);
+	strbuf_addstr(&sentinel_path, OVERLOAD_SENTINEL_NAME);
+	if (!stat(sentinel_path.buf, &statbuf)) {
+		strbuf_release(&path);
+		return 1;
+	}
+
+	/* check if we're overriding the threshold (e.g., for testing) */
+	test_threshold_val = getenv("GIT_TRACE2_TEST_OVERLOAD_FILE_COUNT");
+	if (test_threshold_val)
+		overload_file_count = atoi(test_threshold_val);
+	if (overload_file_count <= 0)
+		overload_file_count = OVERLOAD_FILE_COUNT;
+
+
+	/* check file count */
+	dirp = opendir(path.buf);
+	while (file_count < overload_file_count && dirp && readdir(dirp))
+		file_count++;
+	if (dirp)
+		closedir(dirp);
+
+	if (file_count >= overload_file_count) {
+		creat(sentinel_path.buf, S_IRUSR | S_IWUSR);
+		/* TODO: Write a target-specific message? */
+		strbuf_release(&path);
+		return 1;
+	}
+
+	strbuf_release(&path);
+	return 0;
+}
+
 static int tr2_dst_try_auto_path(struct tr2_dst *dst, const char *tgt_prefix)
 {
 	int fd;
@@ -50,6 +121,16 @@ static int tr2_dst_try_auto_path(struct tr2_dst *dst, const char *tgt_prefix)
 	strbuf_addstr(&path, sid);
 	base_path_len = path.len;
 
+	if (tr2_dst_overloaded(tgt_prefix)) {
+		strbuf_release(&path);
+		if (tr2_dst_want_warning())
+			warning("trace2: not opening %s trace file due to too "
+				"many files in target directory %s",
+				tr2_sysenv_display_name(dst->sysenv_var),
+				tgt_prefix);
+		return 0;
+	}
+
 	for (attempt_count = 0; attempt_count < MAX_AUTO_ATTEMPTS; attempt_count++) {
 		if (attempt_count > 0) {
 			strbuf_setlen(&path, base_path_len);
